Goldman Sachs SHOCKER: China NEV Penetration Breaks 50% for First Time! Xiaomi Orders EXPLODE

Goldman Sachs China New Energy Vehicle Weekly Report Week 26 documents historic market transformation as electric vehicles achieve mainstream dominance. Historic 50% Penetration Milestone: Chinese New Energy Vehicle (NEV) penetration rate breaks 50% barrier for first time, reaching 51.9%, marking fundamental shift from "early adoption" to "mainstream choice." NEVs now command half of China's new car sales, representing structural market transformation with profound implications for global automotive industry. Robust Market Performance: Week 26 passenger vehicle insurance registrations hit 570,000 units (+4% weekly), with NEVs reaching 296,000 units (+5% weekly). Market demonstrates accelerating recovery momentum across all segments. Brand Landscape Reshuffling: Top three brands remain BYD (27%), Tesla China (7%), and AITO (4%), but new forces show explosive growth: Xiaomi surges 97%, Firefly jumps 74%, Luxeed gains 56%. Market share shifts dramatic: Tesla China, Xiaomi, XPeng gain 2.1, 1.4, 0.8 percentage points respectively, while BYD, Li Auto, Deepal lose 2.9, 0.5, 0.1 percentage points. Xiaomi's Spectacular Performance: Xiaomi Motors captures 280,000 new orders in Week 26, demonstrating exceptional consumer acceptance for tech-brand crossover. HIMA and Leapmotor secure 11,000 and 10,000 new orders respectively, validating tech giants' automotive ambitions. Policy Stimulus Accelerating: Trade-in subsidy platform receives 4.1 million applications by May 31st. Daily new applications average 45,000 during May 12-31 period, significantly above previous 32,000, confirming policy effectiveness in stimulating demand. Price War Intensification: Three new/refreshed models launched with lower MSRPs in Week 26. Year-to-date 55 price cuts averaging 8% reduction. However, dealer discounts narrowing: NEV average 8.11%, ICE vehicles 22.87%, indicating improved terminal sales conditions. Cost Environment Stabilizing: Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices at RMB 61,400/ton (+2.8% weekly) but significantly below 2024 quarterly averages. LFP and NCM battery cell prices remain stable, providing predictable cost environment for manufacturers. Upcoming Catalysts: July 3rd XPeng G7 launch, July 4th BYD Seal 06 DM-i Touring launch, plus Li Auto i8 and NIO Ledo L90 debuts scheduled for July. Strategic Implications: 50% penetration breakthrough signals China's automotive market entering new era. Competition transitions from "blue ocean expansion" to "zero-sum market share battles." Technology innovation, brand differentiation, and cost optimization become decisive competitive factors as market matures.  #ChinaEV  #GoldmanSachs  #XiaomiCars  #NEVPenetration #ElectricVehicles #WallStreetPodcast