Oil Giants' $90 Survival Line | BofA July 18 Report

BofA Securities' July 18, 2025 report reveals European oil majors face a harsh reality: despite 10% market cap gains, they require an average $90/bbl Brent to cover capex and shareholder returns. Q2 2025 shows a $13.2bn organic FCF deficit with net debt rising for the seventh consecutive quarter. Shell emerges as the only company achieving organic breakeven at $70/bbl, while Galp shows strongest earnings upside. The projected $20bn+ annual cash flow gap, primarily filled through asset disposals, signals the industry's entry into the "Big Energy Trilemma" era.