Behind the Markets Podcast: Warren Pies & Nitesh Shah

Show from 7/14/23 Prof. Siegel begins with the positive news of inflation coming in below expectations. He highlights the strength of the real economy, citing low initial jobless claims and strong consumer sentiment. Market sentiment is optimistic, with money flowing back into the market and a favorable outlook for investors. (00:12:50) Warren focuses on the potential margin contraction in 2024 earnings due to wage pressures and interest expenses, expressing concern about the excessive optimism in the market. He also mentions that while AI may enhance productivity in the long term, its efficiency gains might not materialize in time to support the 2024 earnings picture. Nitesh discusses the disappointment in China's reopening and the absence of substantial stimulus measures to drive growth. While China has been strategically accumulating raw materials and investing in grid expenditures for the energy transition, questions arise about its ability to maintain demand growth, especially in the oil market. Guest: Prior to founding 3Fourteen Research, Warren led Ned Davis Research’s Energy and Commodity strategy. In that role, he built the firm’s commodity-related studies, models, and unique indicators. His research combines proprietary fundamental, technical and macro indicators to identify major investment themes and market trends affecting capital markets. Warren is a frequent contributor to the media including participating in the 2013 Barron’s MLP Roundtable discussion, the Wall Street Journal, CNBC, and RealVision. In 2014, Euromoney Institutional Investor awarded Warren the Padraic Fallon award for his research on the Shale Revolution. Outside of the research world, Warren has worked as a practicing attorney specializing in regulatory approvals for various industrial activities and projects. He has also owned, operated, and sold a portfolio of self-storage properties to a national REIT. Learn more at: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/about Follow Warren on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/warren-pies-erp-1b999437/ Nitesh Shah is Head of Commodities & Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree Europe Follow Nitesh on Twitter: @NiteshShahWT