The Upgrade: Episode 28: Material Shifts In Key Credit Stats Drove Downgrades To 'B-' And 'CCC'

In this discussion, Minesh Patel, the US sector lead of Leveraged Finance at S&P Global Ratings, teams up with the Director of Leveraged Finance, Hanna Zhang, to explore the key insights presented in Hanna's latest commentary, titled "U.S. Leveraged Finance Q1 2023 Update: Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes -- Material Shifts In Key Credit Stats Drove Downgrades To 'B-' And 'CCC', And Upgrades To 'B-'." Key takeaways from the article include: Within 12 months leading to a rating action, higher debt service costs and slower profit growth were often the leading factors in downgrades to 'B-' and the 'CCC' category (CCC+/CCC/CCC-). Median leverage for companies downgraded to the 'CCC' category rose to 15.5x as EBITDA all but dried up. It was 8x for entities rated 'B-'. We estimate that roughly 37% of 'B' rated issuers employ interest rate hedges. Interest rate sensitivity for 'B-' rated companies is much higher, with roughly 19% employing hedges and 90% floating-rate debt exposure. Speculative-grade borrowers may be returning to cash preservation, but 2022 was loaded with shareholder rewards and heavy working capital investment for companies rated 'B+' and higher. Issues with recovery expectations within the 50%-70% range account for two-thirds of total new issuance in the first quarter of 2023, although average recovery expectations remain near the low end of the post-2017 average.  The commentary to the related article: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/230504-leveraged-finance-u-s-leveraged-finance-q1-2023-update-ch-ch-ch-changes-material-shifts-in-key-credit-st-12711927 The hyperlink to the interactive dashboard. https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research-insights/sector-intelligence/interactives/us-leveraged-finance-q1-2023