Are We Nearing a Period of Stagflation?

In this episode, Brian concludes his series on macroeconomic trends that will impact investor returns over the next cycle. He examines stagflation - a dangerous mix of high inflation and economic stagnation that previously occurred in the 1970s. While not overly concerned about stagflation recurring, Brian believes we may be entering a period of moderately high baseline inflation and potential recession. He advises listeners to learn from the 1970s stagflation case study and invest in real assets as an inflation hedge.[00:00 - 02:53] - What is Stagflation and What Caused it in the 1970s?Definition of stagflation as high inflation during economic stagnation/recessionCaused by oil shocks and supply disruptions in the 1970sPolicy mistakes fed inflation instead of cooling it[02:53 - 05:32] - The 1970s Stagflation Case StudyTwo oil shocks - 1973 and 1979 - caused recessions and inflationLoose monetary and fiscal policy worsened the situationEventually resolved by tighter fiscal policy and growth in 1980s[05:32 - 08:39] - Could Stagflation Recur Today?COVID stimulus initially fed inflation but it has cooled recentlyModerate baseline inflation likely going forwardRecession possible in 2023 from rate hikes and tighteningFed focused on crushing inflation over recession risk[08:39 - 11:19] - How to Invest if Stagflation Strikes AgainStudy 1970s case - real assets did well as inflation hedgesDon't panic but monitor inflation and economic indicatorsDiversify into real assets like commodities and real estateKey Quotes:"Stagflation is a period of high inflation that happens at the same time as a stagnation of growth or outright recession - the worst of both worlds." - Brian C. Adams"If you look at how bad the period of the seventies was for the U.S., it's certainly not something that we want to replicate." - Brian C. Adams______________________Download our FREE Strategizing for Inflation Guide here: https://www.excelsiorgp.com/download/Connect with me:https://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-c-adams/ (LinkedIn)LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, AND LEAVE US A REVIEW on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, or whatever platform you listen on. Thank you for tuning in and Stay Tuned for the Next Episode COMING SOON! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.