The Rate Stuff: What Markets Are Saying About the Macro Outlook

What are the markets telling us about expectations for the economy and monetary policy? We sat down with Francesco Garzarelli, co-chief markets economist of the Global Macro Research team, who says recent upticks in volatility reflect a stronger US growth outlook and uncertainty about how the Federal Reserve will respond to it. He discusses why investors should pay attention to the "term premium" reflected in bond prices to assess whether investors are too complacent about inflation, and the implications of divergence in monetary policy between the US, Europe and Japan. This podcast was recorded on March 6, 2018. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2018 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved.