What Can Credit Markets Tell Us About the Chances of a US Recession?

A Goldman Sachs Research study of the last 100 years suggests US recessions can be boiled down to five major causes - and several (like industrial and oil supply shocks) look structurally less threatening today. But among those that still bear close watching are the financial balances of households and corporations, which GS Research's Chief Credit Strategist Lotfi Karoui says aren't showing signs of a private sector living beyond its means. Outstanding mortgage debt has declined drastically and consumer credit growth has slowed to a four-cycle low, while on the corporate side, strong profitability and debt-servicing capacity are providing a buffer for rising net leverage. That said, there are several pockets of risk - including the growth in leveraged loans, direct lending, and delinquencies in the subprime auto loan market - but Karoui thinks it's unlikely we'll see them drag the broader economy into a downturn. This podcast was recorded on February 26, 2019. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2019 Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC. All rights reserved.