Inflationary Recession Is On The Horizon | Paul Hodges

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Paul Hodges of New Normal Consulting & writer of the pH report. By using leading indicators, Paul predicts cyclical changes in the economic cycle months ahead of most. After correctly calling for inflation in 2021, Paul now warns of an inflationary recession throughout 2022 & runs through the characteristics of this recessionary cycle. Paul goes on to discuss the effect of energy market disruptions in Europe, what this will mean for green energy over the next decade & beyond, how to invest in this environment & potential trouble in the CLO market whilst most investors are distracted by the current news cycle. -- BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack. -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (02:17) Forecasting Inflation In 2021 (03:57) Forecasting A Recession (08:15) Energy's Effect On Inflation (14:04) Natural Gas Disruption in Europe (16:42) Oil Market Outlook (19:50) A Historical Reversal In German Policy (25:12) BCB Group Ad (26:00) Can Europe Cut Reliance On Russian Energy? (39:20) Forecasting A Recession Using Oil (41:55) We Are In A Deflationary World (57:45) Trouble In The CLO Market (1:01:04) Investment Opportunities For The Next Decade & Beyond