Adam Hamilton: From a Cyclical Low to a Super Bull – Why This Could be Gold’s Decade

Tom welcomes back Adam Hamilton, founder of Zeal LLC. a newsletter service and is a market speculator. According to Hamilton, the recent rally in gold prices is primarily driven by fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment, with seasonality playing a small role. He noted that gold stocks are undervalued compared to gold prices, presenting a significant opportunity for investors. Hamilton pointed out that physical demand, such as Indian weddings and Chinese New Year, contributes to the underlying strength of the gold market. However, he emphasized that sentiment and herd mentality are crucial factors in the current rally, particularly during the spring season when optimism and exuberance tend to increase. Adam also discussed the Commitments of Traders Report (COT) and how it can be used to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trends in gold futures markets. He tracks changes in speculators' long and short positions over time to identify periods of buying or selling that may indicate a change in market sentiment or trend. Hamilton also highlighted the importance of tracking gold ETF holdings as an indicator of investment demand for gold. However, he noted that it is essential to distinguish between physical demand and ETF demand when analyzing the gold market. He suggested breaking down western physical demand into categories such as bars and coins and foreign demand from regions such as Europe and Asia. Hamilton believes that there is still significant potential for investment demand to drive up the price of gold, with speculators having only completed 55% of their total potential buying since the uptrend began in early October. He also pointed out that retail investors will drive the surge in demand for physical gold, leading to reports of shortages and pushing up the physical price. Adam is interested in the potential of physically-backed digital gold currencies, especially among younger generations who are attracted to digital assets. He believes there will be high demand for a Bitcoin-like tradable vehicle backed by physical gold, making it easier for people to own and transact with gold. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Recent Gold Moves2:36 - Seasonality & Asia4:30 - Miner Performance5:45 - Seasons & Sentiment7:46 - Investor Shift?9:48 - Supply & Demand11:53 - 2020 Vs. 202413:33 - Driving Factors15:43 - Gold Indicators18:20 - Types of Gold Demand21:00 - West Retail Buying?23:38 - Mining Sectors24:58 - Fundamentals & FOMO28:26 - Money Supply/Inflation32:06 - Hedonic Adjustments32:47 - Compelling Thoughts?35:32 - ETFs & Physical Gold37:38 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode * Gold prices rally due to fundamentals, technicals, sentiment, and seasonality. * Undervalued gold stocks present a significant opportunity for investors. * Physically-backed digital gold currencies could attract younger generations. Guest Links:Website: https://www.zealllc.com/Articles: http://zealllc.com/essays.htm Adam Hamilton founded Zeal LLC in early 2000. He started investing in stocks when he was 12 years old, using money from summer jobs. He grew up fascinated by stock markets, dreaming of making a living in this unique realm where compensation is not limited by time on task like most other professions. After growing up in a small-town banking family in rural North Dakota, Adam left for school at the University of Colorado at Boulder. While watching the markets and trading, he studied finance, accounting,