Alasdair Macleod: This Gold Move Has Only Just Started

Tom welcomes back Alasdair Macleod, Head of Research at GoldMoney to discuss the current trends in the gold market. The conversation covers various aspects of the gold market, including the role of the dollar, increased demand for physical gold, particularly in China, and the impact on the COMEX market. Macleod explains that gold is hitting new highs due to the dollar's decline rather than an increase in gold prices per se. He attributes this trend to government policies that maintain large budget deficits. A Trump second term is likely to continue weakening the dollar. Chinese households are turning to physical gold as an alternative to stocks and property, leading to increased demand and potential drainage of physical liquidity from the West. In terms of the COMEX market, Alasdair points out that open interest has significantly increased, particularly due to neutral spread activity and arbitrage. He notes that this market could become more overbought and warns about potential mark-to-mark losses among the swaps, which may lead to further paper demand and a 'bear squeeze' on these institutions. Alasdair discusses the impacts of the Comex, London, and Shanghai exchanges on metals markets. There is a drainage of physical gold from Western markets, particularly London, due to arbitrage opportunities. Chinese banks are expected to increase their gold reserves, and there's also a resurgence in demand for Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). They discuss the risks associated with credit and the potential for a crisis in the financial system, particularly regarding the clearinghouse and shares. Alasdair advises protecting oneself by holding physical assets like gold and silver and ensuring sufficient supplies during the initial stages of a potential collapse. Lastly the effects of BRICS alliance is discussed and their plans to back their currencies with physical gold and silver. Although an attempt was made last year, it did not succeed due to opposition from China and India. Russia is expected to bring this issue up during the upcoming BRICS meeting in Astana in October, proposing that 40% of the new trade settlement currency would be backed by gold. Despite doubts about execution, having significant gold reserves and accumulating substantial quantities of gold for years could significantly impact the global economy if successful. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:49 - Gold Market Shifts3:43 - Gold & Dollar Demand11:37 - Comex Open Interest16:25 - Categories at Comex21:53 - West Vs. East Arbitrage24:16 - ETF's & Other Demand28:32 - Producers & Margins30:25 - Interest Rates & Bank Risk37:00 - Trump Economic Implications40:12 - Political Solution Unlikely44:26 - G7 Nations & Debt Problems46:42 - Ownership & Debt Systems54:20 - BRICS Progression1:01:54 - Lessons & Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode * Gold prices are hitting new highs due to the dollar's decline, leading to increased demand for physical gold, particularly in China. * The COMEX market is experiencing significant increase in open interest due to neutral spread activity and arbitrage opportunities, potentially leading to overbought conditions and mark-to-mark losses for swaps. * Gold markets are witnessing a drainage of physical gold from Western markets, primarily London, as well as increased demand from Chinese banks and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). * Russia's may proposed in the BRICS alliance to back new trade settlement currencies with 40% gold. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacleodFinanceWebsite: