Danielle DiMartino Booth: Fed Doesn’t Have a Snowball’s Chance in Hell of Achieving a Soft Landing

Tom welcomes back Danielle DiMartino Booth to the show to discuss de-dollarization and its implications for the US economy. Danielle argues that while concerns over countries moving away from the US dollar system have been ongoing for a long time, the US dollar remains dominant in global transactions due to its vast liquidity pool and lack of competition. She advises investors to diversify during financial crises instead of doubling down on dollars. The conversation touches upon the Federal Reserve's actions, with Danielle expressing concerns about potential policy errors regarding inflation and outdated data usage. Danielle discusses employment statistics, mentioning that hard data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) plays a significant role in revisions to non-farm payrolls and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). She expresses concern over the Fed's reliance on outdated data and potential late action. The conversation also covers concerns about risks for regional banks, rising bankruptcy rates, and imminent student loan delinquencies. She also discusses signs of a potential recession, including slowdown in credit card spending, increasing charge offs, and decreasing employment levels. Despite some optimistic predictions, she express skepticism due to the weak economic foundation and the Fed's role in combatting inflation with varying opinions on its likelihood. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Dedollarization Trends2:47 - Global Dollar Trade5:49 - Reserves and Data8:57 - Fed & Global C.B. Cuts10:49 - Fed & 2024 Elections12:55 - Consumer 'Health'13:58 - Fed Revisions & Data Lag19:44 - Bankruptcies & Inflation23:44 - Problems Not Priced-In25:27 - Regional Banking Risk28:47 - Bigger Banks & Losses32:52 - Credit Card Spending34:52 - Deep Long Recession?37:40 - Fed - Hard Landing38:55 - Inflation Targeting41:09 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode * The US dollar's dominance in global transactions is due to its vast liquidity pool and lack of competition. * Investors are advised to diversify during financial crises instead of relying on dollars. * Concerns over the Fed's policy errors, outdated data usage, and potential late action in addressing economic issues. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothSubstack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/Website: https://quillintelligence.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm. DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets. Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth's The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more. A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio...