David Cervantes of Pinebrook on the Increasing Importance of Political Economy

Our guest this week was David Cervantes, founder of Pine Brook Capital Management. With a rich and diverse background within the investment industry, in the last few years David has dedicated his time to managing his family office and has been developing a macroeconomic framework that considers the objectives and incentives of policymakers as the primary economic drivers. Our conversation included topics such as: Empirical economic analyses and insights from the ‘school of hard knocks’ Fundamentally, a process of elimination – determining first what not to do Less theory, more data Where his approach materially diverges from traditional economics Cognitive Perspective – treating models with respect, but never reverence Macroeconomics is basically ‘political economy in drag’ A dynamic process of incentives and decisions made by political actors The role of ‘timing luck’ (or misfortune) A stroll down history lane – from WWII and the Great Society to the present A closer look at the gargantuan US federal budget deficit Current backdrop – an ‘inflationary supernova’ fueled by fiscal impulse The Fed’s current reaction function Home prices, OER and how they affect CPI Why interest rate volatility matters significantly more than absolute levels How interest rate vol spills over into the risk premia continuum And much more This is “ReSolve’s Riffs” – live on YouTube every Friday afternoon to debate the most relevant investment topics of the day, hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global* and Richard Laterman of ReSolve Asset Management Inc. *ReSolve Global Inc. refers to ReSolve Asset Management SEZC (Cayman) which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor and commodity pool operator. This registration is administered through the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Further, ReSolve Global Inc. is a registered person with the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority.