Talking The Twitter Trade, Analyst Day, And The Big Picture

It's been a wild and, finally, fun ride for Twitter over the past 11 months. While everything feels like smooth sailing now for bulls, even as of our last episode on the stock post ex-President Trump ban in January, things weren't so clear. Despite that, the set-up was good enough for Akram's Razor to open an options trade into the earnings call (and for Daniel Shvartsman to open a small long position, which is a separate story). We break down what happened with Twitter but also more of the mechanics of the options trade; why that trade, why Q4 and not Q3, whether to hold it into the call itself, and what's left for Analyst Day this week. All of this happens within the context of the broader macro environment and what growth investors might start extrapolating as we (fingers crossed!) round our way out of the full COVID environment this year. So we bring a dollop of that context into the discussion as well. Topics Covered 4:00 minute mark - How does event-driven trading of options fit into a broader portfolio strategy? 12:00 - Reviewing our record on Twitter and how/when Akram's views flipped over 2020 - the importance of narrative shifts, product adoption/development, having a variant view, and understanding the other side of the trade 22:30 - Twitter's setup going into the start of 2021 28:45 - Why not own the biggest growth stocks instead of a Twitter? 34:30 - Market participants' tendency to extrapolate in the short-term, and the misuse of 'compounding' 40:00 - Defining mania 48:00 - The strum and drang around Twitter at the beginning of 2021 and the March options trade 1:04:00 - The Q4 reaction and what's left for the analyst day 1:11:00 - Twitter's differentiation in the subscription space 1:22:00 - The importance of understanding the process 1:27:00 - Peak screen time